Tuesday, November 17, 2009

It's been a while. How about the BNI deal and breaking 10,000?

I've been crazy busy at work and the new house... but how about the market?

Warren Buffett makes the biggest bet of his career on a railroad... go figure! Don't get me wrong, I think it's a great move (Full disclosure: I am a huge Warren Buffett fan) but it is ironic that with all the technology we have today, and all the sophisticated systems, that the economy still relies so much on the railroad.

On another note, I am going to tenatively stick my hand up and say that I don't think the market is overbought YET. I think that this is a true rally that we are in the middle of, and the market is actually acting rationally for the first time in a while. After 13 month highs were hit yesterday, the market was pretty flat today, which is typical after a 100+ point swing to the upside. We are pretty well past resistance (psychological) at 10,000 and I think we sit around 10,900 by the end of the year.

Not sure how many readers I have out there, but sorry I've been gone so long, I'm going to try to get back to my regular routine.

Happy investing!

Monday, October 19, 2009

APPL smashes earnings expectations!

It's a bit late, so I'm not going to go technical on you here. But basically AAPL was a huge winner. After hours trading was up, and I assume we may see it push SLIGHTLY higher tomorrow. I wouldn't expect too much more though. The stock has hit an all time high, and I wouldn't be surprised if over the next two weeks, we see a 3-5% retractment.

Here is a note that I'll expand on later this week though:

I don't see AAPL as a big step forward in the recovery of technology companies. Rather, I see this as a big step forward in the recovery for the Consumer Discretionay category! Now is a time in the market cycle where the US consumer is going to start spending again. I'd look into Consumer Discretionary ETF's along with all the technology companies out there. In addition, retail and ultra-luxury stocks are probably going to head higher (hint: Look back at history... typically September and October stock market results give a preview at how much Christmas shopping we do here in America). I'll give some specific picks this week.

Happy investing...

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Intel (INTC) is a winner!

Looks like Intel is going to keep the market going for a bit longer!

An excellent surprise to the upside (who predicted that?) should send the market up again for another period.

I would expect Intel to now reach 22-23 within the next couple of weeks. Their 4th Q guidance is up too.

Happy investing!

Monday, October 12, 2009

I still have faith in Intel's earnings... plus another technology pick (EMC)

I still think we can expect a surprise to the upside with Intel. They have helped fuel the market rally so far, and you can see in the post below why I think they will shine.

But moving on... I've made a couple picks on kaching.com that have landed some really nice returns so far. I log onto msn.com like I do every morning... and I see the following article.


Hmmm. You can read all about EMC right there. HOWEVER. My stock screen that I like to run picked up EMC at $12.22 on 4/23/09. Great company, great business model, and they are running back to the top (I hope). They are currently trading at $17.83 with a P/FCF under 15. They also have $4/share on hand, and as we know, I love a company with cash! For affirmation of my pick, check out my holdings...


This pick reaffirms my faith that had been lacking a little in my own intuition and knack for finding a stock that is priced right that has served me so well in the past. Makes me feel pretty good seeing as an analysts wants you all to buy it now, when I have already seen almost 40% return (I know the pros are not always right, I'm just saying :))

Happy investing

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Intel to report earnings after market close on 10/13 (INTC)

Intel is a definite buy, on the surface and by the numbers. They have great ads, and fanastic products. They are in/attached to/added to more than half the computers our there today!

Positive profit margins
Cash on hand (2.08/share)
Next to no debt!
Earnings are coming up and I am betting on a surprise to the upside...

Estimates now sit around 0.27/share, but I be we end up closer to 0.31-0.32/share. Discretionary spending is up, college students back at school (new laptops and desktops).

Overall, I think it's going to be a good stock to own over the next couple weeks and beyond.

Happy investing!

Sunday, October 4, 2009

MOS--- Earnings season is starting!

Full disclosure, I am exhausted after working on the house this weekend. So, although I am withholding technical analysis this evening...

I picked up some more MOS in my kaching portfolio. So far I have lost 10% on them, but they report after market close tomorrow, and I think we will all be plenty surprised.

MON reports this week too. Monsanto is another strong company that might make a good earnings play.

Another note about ALKS. I still think the pick will end up being a winner. My timing was obviously off. I'm going to have to revise my time frame to a much longer horizon for this stock. I think it still will explode at some point. Solid business model and enough cash on hand. Anyways, that's it for the night. I may post tomorrow if I have time.

Happy investing!

Thursday, October 1, 2009

DOW has a tough start to a new quarter

However, all that means is good buying opportunities, including everything I have commented on in previous posts!

I would DEFINITELY buy BRP asap.

Take care!

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Brasil Telecom Participacoes S/A (BRP)

Anytime you have a global recession like we have, there will always be a couple of movers and shakers that are outside of the typical "hot zones" for investors (Technology, commodities, etc). BRP provides telecom services, including fixed land line, mobile, and ISP functionality in Region II in Brazil.

A telecom services provider is not everyone's idea of a growth stock, but lets look a little deeper at the numbers.

EPS in the past 5 years have grown 20% annually, with an expected annual growth rate of 30% in the next five years. LT Debt/Equity is not exactly where I like to see it, but it is below 1. Here is the big one (depending on how you value stocks): Trading at a price of 52-53 today, BRP has cash on hand PER SHARE of $23.61. That is like buying the stock for $30! To top it off, how about a dividend that is yielding over 5% right now?

BRP will pay you to wait. Fair value for this stock is around $250 (yikes!). However, I'd expect it to head up to around $100 per share since it's P/E now is only around 7.5-8. If it were to head to that price, P/E would be approximately 14-15 based on earnings estimates.

I'd pick this up now, or on a slight pullback to around 50-51.

Happy investing

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

As promised, more on RIMM

It's true, Research in Motion took a beating! And it's also true that everyone misses the mark sometimes... but look at the company on a whole:

1)No debt
2)Cash on hand (2.93/share)
3)EPS expected to increase 22% over the next 5 years
4)Current profit margins over 15%

and for less technical reasons:

5)They aren't stuck with one service provider! (Apple, great product but you kind of shot yourself in the foot.)
6)If you are in the business world, chances are you have a Blackberry, they are everywhere. Granted, IPhone and PALM have some of the market, but lets be realistic.

For all of these reasons I think RIMM is a buy, even more so now that it has been beaten down! Call me contrarian but talk about opportunity! It has fallen from around 85 to 67 and change!

FYI, I would put fair value around 105, and I actually would expect them to hit that point after a few strong quarters.

Happy picking.

Monday, September 28, 2009

I'm slacking...

I know.

I had surgery last week for a shattered knee cap, while starting a new job and stripping wall paper/painting my first home! Feel free to leave motivating comments and I'll be back on this soon making new picks/writing new reviews.

Happy investing!

So my brother convinced me to try FOREX..

And he swears there is nothing better than this program... I'm thinking about trying it out.  PLUS... FOREX now lets you trade gold and silver in addition to currencies as far as I know.  I am playing gold big time right now! Anyway, check out the program below, from what I read it is supposed to be one of the best around.

Peter Bain Forex Trading Video Course

I know I know not my typical investment pick, but if it helps any readers, I'm happy!

As always, happy trading...

Sunday, September 27, 2009

RIMM... Research in Motion

Will bounce back.  It's that simple.

Look for a more detailed write up tomorrow.  FYI I bought in at kaching at 69.84